Martin Brenner

The United States economy delivered disappointing signals heading into the final weeks of 2025, as business activity expansion slowed to its weakest pace in six months. The slowdown spans both manufacturing and services sectors, marking a sharp deceleration from the robust growth experienced earlier in the year and raising concerns about economic momentum entering The United States economy delivered disappointing signals heading into the final weeks of 2025, as business activity expansion slowed to its weakest pace in six months. The slowdown spans both manufacturing and services sectors, marking a sharp deceleration from the robust growth experienced earlier in the year and raising concerns about economic momentum entering 2026. U.S. business activity growth hits 6-month low in December   The S&P Global Flash PMI Deterioration S&P Global’s preliminary Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key gauge of business health across the economy, dropped to 53.0 in December from a final reading of 54.2 in November, marking the sharpest monthly decline in recent months. While values above 50 still indicate expansion, the trajectory is deeply concerning for economic outlook. “The flash PMI data for December indicate that the recent economic growth surge is losing steam,” noted Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Intelligence. “With new sales growth diminishing sharply, especially ahead of the holiday season, economic activity may further weaken as we approach 2026.” New Orders Collapse to 20-Month Low The most alarming headline in the data is the smallest increase in new business inflows in 20 months, marking a dramatic slowdown in demand across the economy. This metric is particularly troubling because order flows typically lead hiring decisions and capital expenditure plans by 4-6 weeks. Manufacturing new orders experienced their first decline in a year, signaling that the sector faces structural headwinds rather than temporary cyclical weakness. The manufacturing PMI index fell to 51.8: the lowest since July: down from 52.2 in November, falling below the 52.4 median forecast from economists. Services activity, which represents two-thirds of U.S. economic output, declined to 52.9 in December, marking a six-month low: down sharply from 54.1 in November and well below the expected 53.5. This is the sector that has carried the economy through much of 2025, so weakness here signals broad-based deceleration. What’s Behind the Slowdown? The Trump Factor The deceleration cannot be divorced from the policy environment created since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Multiple headwinds have accumulated throughout the year: Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda has created an unprecedented level of pricing and competitive uncertainty. Companies are uncertain about input costs, demand patterns, and the duration of tariff regimes, causing them to pull back on hiring and capital investment. Immigration Restrictions: Tighter immigration policies have exacerbated labor market constraints and reduced workforce growth, particularly in lower-wage industries dependent on immigrant workers. Government Shutdown: An unprecedented federal government shutdown in October-November 2025 halted crucial economic data releases and created operational disruption across government-dependent sectors. Volatile GDP Path: The U.S. economy contracted in Q1 2025 as companies rushed imports to avoid anticipated tariffs, followed by a rebound in Q2 as those trends reversed. Q3 growth exceeded 3% annualized before the shutdown, but the underlying trajectory has been erratic. Labor Market Under Strain The PMI data on employment reveals a deeply constrained hiring environment. S&P Global noted that job growth was often hindered by worries regarding costs, weak demand, and uncertainty about the economic forecast. “Some companies also reported ongoing labor shortages,” indicating that the slowdown is not due to an abundance of workers but rather a reluctance to hire despite continued labor supply constraints. This suggests the weakness is demand-driven, not supply-driven: a more pessimistic sign for economic resilience. This finding aligns with broader labor market data: U.S. unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, a four-year high, with job growth in November falling short of expectations. The combination of falling hiring and rising unemployment is particularly troubling in a late-cycle economy. Input Cost Inflation: The Fed’s Headache While demand is weakening, the gauge of input prices from S&P surged to its highest level in nearly three years, driven by a spike in costs reported by service providers. This stagflationary dynamic: weak demand combined with rising costs: presents a policy dilemma for Federal Reserve officials. Higher input costs suggest that any inflation decline achieved in 2025 may reverse, particularly if companies attempt to preserve margins amid pricing pressure. This could complicate Fed decisions on rate cuts, especially if demand weakness is temporary rather than structural. What Could Come Next The data paints a picture of an economy losing momentum at a critical juncture. With holiday shopping already underway and year-end closings upon us, the December flash PMI likely reflects pre-holiday caution rather than robust consumer demand. However, the one-month lag in PMI data means Q4 GDP figures may surprise to the downside. Fed Implications: The combination of weakening growth and rising input costs makes the Federal Reserve’s task exceptionally difficult. Recent inflation data showed core CPI moderation, potentially justifying rate cuts, but business-level input cost pressures could signal inflation persistence that justifies holding rates steady or even raising them. 2026 Outlook: Should the current slowdown persist into 2026: a significant risk given policy uncertainty around tariffs, trade negotiations with China, and potential additional regulatory changes: the economy could face outright contraction risk. Conversely, if trade negotiations reach resolution and policy clarity emerges, the economy could rebound sharply given the underlying strength of the labor market and consumer balance sheets. Key Takeaway The United States economy entered December 2025 on weakening footing, with business activity expansion hitting its slowest pace in six months. The collapse in new orders, widespread hesitation on hiring, and rising input costs create a complex backdrop where neither growth optimists nor recession pessimists can claim complete vindication. The coming weeks of data will be crucial in determining whether this slowdown is cyclical or signals structural challenges for 2026.

The Fall Behind the Race: How Meta Platforms’ Bold Bet Backfired For years, Meta Platforms stood proudly as one of the titans of tech. But lately, it’s been clear that titans don’t always stay unchallenged. After reporting a 26 % revenue growth in its most recent quarter, Meta’s announcements sparked a sharper reaction than the numbers alone would suggest. Investors fixated on one phrase: “notably larger capital expenses next year.” Those two words triggered a ripple effect. Why? Because they signalled that Meta was going all-in on building AI infrastructure—data centres, networks, arms of research—at a scale that would demand billions in spending. The result: Meta’s stock plunged 11 % on that forecast alone, erasing more than $29 billion from the fortune of its founder-CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and knocking him out of the top spots on the global billionaire index. But this isn’t just a wealth-story. It’s a warning light. It reveals the risks that come when a company leans heavily into future promise while current sentiment turns cautious. The tech industry is shifting too: Investors want not just growth, but profitable growth or at least a credible path to it. Meta’s spending spree is a bet on the long game—but Wall Street responded with impatience for shorter-term accountability. Why It Matters For Meta: The blow to its market value and to investor confidence may force a rethink in how aggressively it pursues expensive, long-term projects. For the tech sector: The episode underscores a key tension: will companies with massive ambitions and heavy investment go the distance—or will the pace of spending become a liability? For investors and markets: It signals that the honeymoon phase for AI and infrastructure splurges might be fading. Big promises now must carry big discipline. For the broader economy: As companies shift vast sums into new infrastructure (AI, cloud, chips), we’ll likely see knock-on effects in employment, supply chains, and global competition among tech powers. What to Watch Next Will Meta cut back or delay some of its investment plans to ease investor concerns? How will Meta’s competitors respond? If rivals like Alphabet Inc. or Amazon.com Inc. capitalise on this moment, we might see a reshuffle in leadership across Big Tech. What will regulators and governments do? Massive AI infrastructure can raise questions of data sovereignty, competition and national security. How will Meta’s strategic pivot affect its consumer-facing products (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp)? Will cost pressures impact user experience, features, or monetisation? This story isn’t just about a stock plunge or a billionaire’s net-worth—it’s about the crossroads at which Big Tech now stands. Whether Meta’s gamble pays off could shape the next decade of how technology is built, how it’s funded, and who controls it.  

A New Chapter in the Indo-Pacific: When Shields Become Bridges On the crisp autumn morning of November 1, 2025, the halls of the summit centre in Gyeongju, South Korea, were charged with an unusual mix of ceremony and uncertainty. As delegates gathered for the closing session of the APEC 2025 Summit, all-eyes were on two figures whose presence alone seemed to signal that something more than diplomacy was at play: Xi Jinping of China and Donald Trump of the United States. Viewed from the vantage of geography and strategy, the Indo-Pacific region has long been defined by fault-lines: trade tensions, military posturing, ideological divides. Yet today, what unfolded was subtly different. The two leaders—once symbols of deep rivalry—posed side-by-side in a gesture that felt more like a prelude than a finale: Trump offering a handshake, Xi offering a nod, and South Korea’s president playing elegant host. The Moment That Caught the Lens As cameras flashed and the world tuned in, the summit’s communiqué spoke of “shared interests, responsible leadership and the need to ensure that all nations gain from the region’s growth.” It was language familiar enough—but the spectacle of China and the U.S. under the same roof nonetheless carried deeper resonance than the words themselves. In the corridors, delegates whispered of earlier drafts: harsher tones softened, references to “strategic competition” replaced by “constructive collaboration.” In the lobby’s coffee lounge, analysts noted the change not in what was said, but what was unsaid—the reference to exclusion zones, to spheres of influence, to zero-sum gains, all missing from the final text. Why It Matters This technical “summit handshake” matters because symbols open doors. When two great powers once at odds show up at the same table, it tells smaller nations something: the game is changing. For exporters in Southeast Asia, it suggests tariffs may ease. For military planners in the region, it suggests a recalibration of alliances. For heads of state in capitals large and small, it suggests the era of head-on confrontation may be giving way to a subtler competition—one rooted in economics, infrastructure, and influence rather than tanks and warships. It also matters because timing is everything. With security flash-points in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula still very much alive, this summit did not guarantee peace—but it did open a window for diplomacy. What Happens Next Will this summit actually translate into coordinated trade deals, or is this merely a photo-op? Watch for announcements in the coming weeks: new bilateral pacts, infrastructure funding commitments, or joint statements on emerging technologies. Will regional players respond? Countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines will soon map their strategies—if the U.S. and China shift tone, their choices become richer and more complex. How will domestic political winds respond? Leaders in Washington and Beijing both face populist pressures—what was achievable today may be challenged tomorrow by rivals who prefer tougher postures. In the End Out of the summit’s ornate hallways and flags of many colours emerged a simple yet potent message: in a world of shifting tectonics, change often arrives not with fireworks, but with handshakes. For the Indo-Pacific region, that handshake may be the first step in a transformation that reorganises not only trade maps, but strategic mind-maps too.

Organon & Co. CEO Kevin Ali to resign after internal probe into wholesaler sales practices. Organon & Co. announced that its Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Ali, will step down following an internal investigation into sales practices within the company’s U.S. wholesale channel. The probe revealed irregularities involving the company’s contraceptive implant product, Nexplanon. The investigation determined that between 2022 and 2025, certain U.S. wholesalers were encouraged to purchase more Nexplanon inventory than needed at the end of several financial quarters. While the issue accounted for less than one percent of the company’s consolidated annual revenue for 2022 and 2024, it raised concerns about internal controls and ethical compliance. Organon stated that the findings do not require any restatement of previously issued financial statements. However, the company plans to implement several remedial measures to strengthen its governance and oversight systems to ensure transparency in its sales and distribution processes. Kevin Ali’s resignation is effective immediately. He will not receive severance payments or equity-related retirement benefits as part of his departure. Joseph Morrissey, Executive Vice President and Head of Manufacturing & Supply, has been appointed as Interim CEO. The company’s Board Chair, Carrie Cox, will assume additional responsibilities as Executive Chair until a permanent CEO is appointed. Following the announcement, the company’s shares saw a significant decline in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concern over the leadership transition and internal control issues. Despite the limited financial impact, the resignation highlights the importance of ethical conduct and accountability within the pharmaceutical sector. Organon, which has positioned itself as a global leader in women’s health, faces the challenge of restoring investor confidence while maintaining its operational stability and reputation for integrity. The company has assured stakeholders that it will continue to prioritize compliance, reinforce its internal audit framework, and strengthen relationships with its partners as it moves forward under interim leadership.